The democratic primary by the numbers

Yike! I'm sorry, but I found that a very muddy and hard to follow argument. It also ignores a fundamental reality that most of the media is also overlooking: even pledged delegates have some flexibility. The flex is evident in two ways.

(1) Most states still have their own conventions ahead (mostly in June) and those conventions are where the real delegates will be selected. The primary results usually translate into delegates who go to county-level conventions who select delegates who go to state-level conventions who select delegates who go to the national convention. Careful organizing at these conventions can result in shifts in the delegate count. Also, some states (like Iowa) have a significant pool of Edwards delegates who could now line up with another candidate as they move through this process. The fact is, we don't yet know who the actual delegates will be and while our assumptions about their allegiance may be reasonable, it is not bulletproof. These are thinking people, they will be influenced by the rest of the campaign.

(2) Different states have different rules with regard to how tightly pledged delegates are bound to a candidate. In many cases, after a first ballot all bets are off. If the convention is contested, as looks very possible, a whole lot will depend on the individuals who actually get onto the floor as delegates.

Getting super fancy with "delegate math" at this stage is a fine passtime for those so inclined, but it has little bearing on the reality of the situation. The reality is that the campaigns need to continue to get their message out and persuade all delegates, the ones they supposedly have pledged and those pledged to others, that their is the right course for America. The campaign also, if they are smart, will be active at the county and state level conventions to make sure the individual delegates selected will stay loyal for as long as possible.